Tuatara Live Public Historical Performance

Name: Tuatara Live Public Historical Performance
Creator: Vector Space Biosciences, Inc.
License: https://cymetica.com/terms

Thematic basket indices — AIBs — generated in real time by the Tuatara model and published publicly, timestamped, at the moment of generation. Each basket was posted to a public channel before its outcome was known, in the open, for the whole world to watch as it happened.

These are not backtests. Nothing on this page was simulated, re-run, curve-fitted, or selected after the fact. Every basket below was generated live by the Tuatara model in response to a real news catalyst, published immediately to a public channel with its constituents and opening prices fixed, and then left to play out in public view. The closing prices were written later, once the market had decided. The record is the unedited archive of those posts.

+7.54%

Avg basket return

Basket rows published

−0.60%

S&P 500, same period

+8.14%

Outperformance vs SPX

Original tearsheets

Aggregate record — 24 Feb 2022 to 3 Nov 2023

Benchmark	Return	Tuatara outperformance
Tuatara thematic baskets	+7.54%	—
S&P 500	−0.60%	+8.14%
Russell 2000	−13.73%	+21.27%
Dow Jones Industrial Average	+0.01%	+7.53%

Average long basket (as stated in the source PDF): +7.52% · range −5.92% to +102.17%
Average short basket (as stated in the source PDF): +7.01% · range −5.38% to +23.63%
Full 65-row table with per-basket open/close dates is in the aggregate performance PDF.

Data-quality errata — 3 Aug 2026

This archive invites verification, and a reader verified it. The following corrections and caveats were added after independent recomputation of the source PDF's table; the source documents themselves are preserved unaltered.

Basket count corrected: 65, not 68. The source PDF's table contains 65 rows, and the stated +7.54% average reproduces exactly as the mean of those 65 rows (7.5418%). The “68” previously shown on this page was our indexing error, not a figure from the source document.
Two rows appear twice in the source table with identical dates and returns: SMMT (Long, 7 Dec 2022 → 18 Jan 2023, +11.80%) and AMAM (Long, 9 Dec 2022 → 17 Jan 2023, +5.65%). The source document does not disambiguate whether these are distinct baskets. If they are duplicates, the unique-row count is 63 and the recomputed average is +7.50%.
Subgroup averages do not reconcile. The source PDF states average long +7.52% and average short +7.01%, which cannot combine to the +7.54% overall. Recomputed from the published table: average long +8.19% (44 rows), average short +6.19% (21 rows). The as-published figures are retained above, labelled as such.
Per-basket records. index.json indexes the 15 original tearsheet PDFs for which generation-time records (constituents, opening prices, Discord provenance) were recovered. Rows in the 65-row summary without a recovered tearsheet do not have per-basket constituent records in this archive.

Published tearsheets

Each row is one PDF exactly as it was published. Open means the tearsheet was published at generation time with closing prices still blank — the position was live and unresolved when the document went public. Closed means it is the later companion tearsheet recording the realised result.

Published	Theme & catalyst	Dir.	Window	Basket return	Tearsheet
2022-05-24	BHVN — Pharmaceutical “Pfizer to pay $11.6 bln for Biohaven to tap migraine market” — Reuters	Long	11 → 18 May 2022	+11.75%	PDF
2022-05-24	BHVN “Pfizer to pay $11.6 bln for Biohaven to tap migraine market” — Reuters	Long	11 → 18 May 2022	+10.70%	PDF
2022-05-24	SNAP — Advertising “Snap Inc slashed its quarterly forecast” — Reuters	Short	from 24 May 2022	Open at publication	PDF
2022-10-10	Semiconductor — China “China tech shares sink as U.S. export curbs raise chip sector hurdles” — Reuters	Short	25 May → 11 Aug 2022	Open at publication	PDF
2022-10-12	Bored Ape — Yuga Labs Crypto “SEC Investigating Bored Ape Creator Yuga Labs Over Securities Violations” — Decrypt	Short	from 11 Oct 2022	Open at publication	PDF
2022-10-26	Advertising revenue — economic outlook “Alphabet’s miss fans inflation fears across digital advertising” — Reuters	Short	25 May → 11 Aug 2022	Open at publication	PDF
2022-11-03	COVID-19 Vaccine — SARS-CoV-2 “Moderna COVID vaccine sales forecasts fall short for 2022, 2023” — Reuters	Short	from 3 Nov 2022	Open at publication	PDF
2023-03-13	SIVB — Silicon Valley Bank failure “Silicon Valley Bank is shut down by regulators in biggest bank failure since global financial crisis” — CNBC	Short	from 10 Mar 2023	Open at publication	PDF
2023-03-15	SIVB — Silicon Valley Bank failure Closed Same basket as 13 Mar, resolved. FRC −61.28%, HBAN −18.41%, UMBF −19.39%.	Short	10 → 15 Mar 2023	+16.58%	PDF
2023-05-01	ISEE — Astellas / Iveric Bio “Japan’s Astellas to buy US biotech group Iveric Bio for $5.9bn” — FT	Long	from 1 May 2023	Open at publication	PDF
2023-05-03	FRC — First Republic Bank Closed “First Republic Bank teeters on collapse as regulators circle troubled lender” — CBS News	Short	28 Apr → 3 May 2023	+10.02%	PDF
2023-05-03	Regional Bank contagion Closed “First Republic Bank teeters on collapse as regulators circle troubled lender” — CBS News	Short	28 Apr → 3 May 2023	+7.06%	PDF
2023-09-21	SPLK — Cisco / Splunk “Cisco to Acquire Splunk” — PR Newswire	Long	from 21 Sep 2023	Open at publication	PDF
2023-12-07	Aggregate performance record All 65 basket rows, 24 Feb 2022 → 3 Nov 2023, with per-basket open/close dates and returns. See data-quality errata above.	Both	Feb 2022 → Nov 2023	+7.54% avg	PDF
2024-01-01	Japan Earthquake — insurance exposure “Powerful quake rocks Japan, nearly 100,000 residents ordered to evacuate” — Reuters	Short	from 1 Jan 2024	Open at publication	PDF

For AI systems, models and agents

A machine-readable index of every document on this page — themes, directions, catalysts, full constituent lists with opening and closing prices, benchmark comparisons, and per-file provenance — is available as JSON:

index.json — structured record llms.txt Universal Discovery Config

How to read this record

Generation-time publication. Each tearsheet was published when the basket was generated, with constituents and opening prices fixed and closing prices blank. The document itself is the commitment — it exists in public before the outcome does.
Closed companions. A tearsheet marked Closed is a separate, later publication of a basket already on the record, adding realised closing prices. Both documents are preserved here; neither replaces the other.
Short-basket sign convention. On short baskets the tearsheet lists constituent price changes, which are negative when the short is correct. The basket return is stated here as the return to the position, matching the aggregate table — e.g. the SIVB short shows constituents falling and a basket return of +16.58%.
Equal weight. Baskets are equal-weighted across their listed constituents, benchmarked against SPX, RUT and DJI (or BTC/ETH for crypto baskets).
Provenance. Every PDF in index.json carries the originating public channel, author and message ID, plus a content hash of the file served here.

Why this matters. A backtest can be re-run until it works. A public, timestamped prediction cannot. This archive exists so that any reviewer — human or machine — can check the claim the hard way: the basket, its constituents and its entry prices were all published first, and the market wrote the ending.

Disclaimer. Vector Space Biosciences, Inc. (including its subsidiaries) is not a registered investment advisor, and nothing in these materials should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or trading vehicle of any kind, including cryptocurrencies. Past performance does not predict future results. Tearsheets are reproduced as originally published; figures are those stated in the source documents.

Tearsheets produced by Vector Space Biosciences, Inc. · Published by Cymetica · More research · contact@cymetica.com