AI Adaptation Research Report — TTWO (TAKE TWO INTERACTIVE SOFTWARE INC) · BlackSwan constituent

EventTrader research desk · generated 2026-11-06 06:30 UTC · report ai-adapt-ttwo-20261106 · narrative: AI analyst, checked against the evidence pack

1. Verdict

• Short book, AI-absent. TTWO sits in the BlackSwan short book on the 2026-11-06 run with verdict "blackswan," because the anchor filing contains zero sentences that mention artificial intelligence [S5][S1].
• Anchor filing: the Form 10-Q filed 2026-08-07 for the quarter ended 2026-06-30 (accession 0001628280-26-054870) [S1][S2].
• Adoption level: "absent" (final level 0), with no model read performed (model_status "none") [S5].
• Score: an AI Adaptation Score (AAS) of 9.397, which places TTWO in the non-adopter cluster at the 6.5th percentile of the 6,511-name universe and the 1.0th percentile of the 585 software companies scored [S5].
• What would move it: a later periodic filing that actually discusses AI in substantive terms — enough to raise the lexical level above 0 and, ideally, trigger a model read [S5].

2. The company

The pack identifies the filer as TAKE TWO INTERACTIVE SOFTWARE INC, trading as TTWO on Nasdaq, with SEC CIK 946581 [S4]. Its SIC code is 7372, described as "Services-Prepackaged Software," and the scoring universe places it in the software sector (SIC 7370–7379) [S5]. The filing reviewed for this run is TTWO's Form 10-Q covering the period ending 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-07 [S1]. Beyond identity, sector, and the filing reviewed, the pack states nothing further about what the company does, and this report does not add it.

3. What the filing says about AI

The anchor filing reviewed for this run contains no sentence that mentions artificial intelligence: the pack records ai_sentences = 0, with zero substance hits and zero risk hits across the document's 7,578 words [S5]. Because the pack supplies no AI sentence from this 10-Q, there is nothing to quote verbatim here. The filing reviewed does not state anything about AI that the evidence pack captured [S1][S5].

4. The AI Adaptation Score

The lexical adoption level is "absent" (final 0, lexical 0) [S5]. No model read was performed on this filing: model is null and model_status is "none," so there are no sub-scores, no confidence, and no credibility read to report [S5].

The composite AAS is 9.397, with a stated margin of 21.112 and an overall level of 0, placing TTWO in the non-adopter cluster [S5]. Its components, as given, are: level 0.0, greenfield 0.0, credibility 0.0, trajectory 5.886, and investment 3.511 [S5]. The two non-zero contributions therefore come entirely from the trajectory and investment components rather than from any AI content in the filing itself.

On percentiles, the score sits at the 6.5th percentile of the 6,511-company universe and the 1.0th percentile among the 585 software-sector companies scored [S5]. The sector reading is the more severe of the two: within software, almost every peer scores higher on this measure.

5. Trajectory

TTWO has a previous periodic report in the pack: the Form 10-K filed 2026-05-22 (accession 0001628280-26-037434) [S3]. That filing was scored at level 1, "exploring," with 20 AI sentences and a substance density of 1.538 [S3]. The current 10-Q is scored at level 0, "absent," with 0 AI sentences [S5]. The level therefore moved down by one step, from "exploring" to "absent," between the annual report and the subsequent quarter [S3][S5]. A 10-Q is a shorter interim filing than a 10-K, which the score's keyword method cannot adjust for on its own — a caveat returned to below.

6. Recent developments

The pack's headline feed is empty for the 45-day window it covers: status "empty," with no items [S5]. There are no recent developments to report from the evidence pack.

7. What would change the verdict

Moving TTWO out of the short book would require the evidence the pack now lacks. Concretely, a later periodic filing (the next 10-Q or 10-K) would need to contain substantive AI sentences — references counted as substance hits rather than zero — enough to lift the lexical level above 0 [S5]. A higher lexical level, and material strong enough to prompt a model read (currently "none"), would in turn allow the level, greenfield, and credibility components — all 0.0 today — to contribute to the AAS [S5]. Because the sector percentile is 1.0, the bar set by software peers is high; incremental language alone may not suffice. This is a description of what the method measures, not a forecast that any such disclosure will appear.

8. Risks and caveats

A filing-based score sees only the words in the specific document it reads. It can detect that this 10-Q mentions AI zero times [S5]; it cannot see AI work TTWO may be doing that is not written into this particular filing — products, research, tooling, or internal deployment that a quarterly report simply does not narrate. A keyword count also cannot judge quality: the prior 10-K's 20 AI sentences raised its level without the method assessing whether those sentences described real adoption [S3]. The step down from "exploring" to "absent" partly reflects document type — a 10-Q is routinely briefer and less strategic than a 10-K, so a zero here is weaker evidence of retreat than a zero in an annual report would be [S3][S5]. No model read was run, so the richer credibility and confidence signals are simply unavailable (model_status "none") [S5]. The verdict would be falsified if the anchor 10-Q in fact contains AI discussion the pack failed to capture, or if the next filing restores substantive AI content [S1][S5].

9. Watch list

• Next filing: TTWO's next periodic report after the 2026-06-30 10-Q; the pack does not state its date [S4].
• Model read: none performed on the anchor filing (model_status "none"); a future substantive filing could trigger one [S5].
• Next scoring run: this report reflects the 2026-11-06 run; the pack does not state the date of the following run [S5].

The quoted real-price feed shows TTWO at 213.25 and not stale as of this run [S6]; price is context only and informs none of the above.

Place in the book

• Rank 3 of 10 in AMF-BLACKSWAN (Swan Composite v1.1.0, scoring run 2026-11-06): the book holds the lowest composites [S5].
• Composite: 0.50 × 9.4 (AAS) + 0.25 × 56.2 (story) + 0.25 × 54.6 (market) = 32.4 [S5].
• Market verdict 54.6: over the last 90 days TTWO moved with the software universe's median daily return (down-capture 1.23, up-capture 1.42, L = 0.19; 33 down / 19 up days) — the Failure-To-Adapt fund's selection signal, 50 = moves with the software universe's median daily return [S5].
• AI Story Score 56.2: a beneficiary narrative in the AI stories written about the company [S5].
• Weight: rank factor 1.78 (rank 3 of 10) × story factor 1.00 × market factor 1.00, normalised across the book and clamped to 5–20% → 11.4% [S5].

Sources

• S1 — TTWO 10-Q filed 2026-08-07 — SEC primary document (the anchor filing the score reads) — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/946581/000162828026054870/ttwo-20260630.htm
• S2 — EDGAR filing index for accession 0001628280-26-054870 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/946581/000162828026054870/
• S3 — TTWO 10-K filed 2026-05-22 — the previous periodic report (trajectory) — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/946581/000162828026037434/
• S4 — SEC EDGAR company submissions — TAKE TWO INTERACTIVE SOFTWARE INC (CIK 946581) — https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=946581
• S5 — EventTrader AI Adaptation Score, scoring run 2026-11-06 — the AMF-BLACKSWAN fund page (method, composition) — https://cymetica.com/fund-performance/AMF-BLACKSWAN
• S6 — EventTrader real-price feed — TTWO quote — https://cymetica.com/api/v1/prices/TTWO

Method and disclaimer

The AI Adaptation Score reads each company's own periodic SEC reports (10-K, 10-Q, 20-F, 40-F): deterministic features (AI sentences by section, proprietary-model, deployment, outcome, investment and vendor language, boilerplate and negation excluded) set an adoption level on a 0–4 rubric; a model read of the filing's AI sentences confirms the level and scores credibility and greenfield (the business built with AI from the ground up rather than retrofitted); the score combines level, greenfield, credibility, trajectory against the previous report and investment, measured against the company's sector, with greenfield carrying the highest reward. The books are composed by Swan Composite v1.1.0: each company's composite is 50% AI Adaptation Score + 25% AI Story Score + 25% market verdict — the AI Story Score is the sentiment of the AI stories written about it, the belief network of companies named in the same stories and the price reaction to those stories (no story scores neutral); the market verdict is the Failure-To-Adapt fund's selection signal, the signed down/up capture ratio of the stock against the software universe's median return over 90 days (a stock that falls more and rises less than its peers scores below 50). AMF-BLACKSWAN holds the ten lowest composites that pass the liquidity screen and the new-listing gate and AMF-WHITESWAN the ten highest, weighted by conviction (rank, story agreement and market agreement, each leg 5–20%), recomposed on every scoring run. Every quote in this report is the filing's text verbatim; every factual sentence names its source; a source the platform could not reach is reported as missing, never filled in.

This report is information, not investment advice. Figures come from the cited sources as of their dates. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset.