{"slug":"ai-adapt-carg-20261105","entry":{"slug":"ai-adapt-carg-20261105","title":"AI Adaptation Research Report — CARG (CarGurus, Inc.) · BlackSwan constituent","symbol":"CARG","kind":"ai_adaptation","name":"CarGurus, Inc.","book":"AMF-BLACKSWAN","direction":"short","verdict":"blackswan","run_date":"2026-11-05","narrative":"deterministic","level":0,"aas":9.4,"date":"2026-11-05","generated_at":"2026-11-05T04:01:17+00:00","description":"CARG (CarGurus, Inc.) is a BlackSwan constituent: its own filings show no adaptation to AI the scorer can credit, and its AI Adaptation Score ranks at the bottom of the software companies (SIC 7370–7379) on the 2026-11-0","algorithm_release":"1.1.0","rank":10,"composite":34.765,"story_score":50.25,"market":69.95,"weight":0.060316,"pinned":false},"url":"/marr/ai-adapt-carg-20261105","markdown":"# AI Adaptation Research Report — CARG (CarGurus, Inc.) · BlackSwan constituent\n\n*EventTrader research desk · generated 2026-11-05 04:01 UTC · report ai-adapt-carg-20261105 · narrative: built from the evidence pack by the platform*\n\n| | |\n|---|---|\n| **Company** | CARG — CarGurus, Inc. · SIC 7374 Services-Computer Processing & Data Preparation |\n| **Book** | AMF-BLACKSWAN (short) — BlackSwan |\n| **Composition algorithm** | Swan Composite v1.1.0 — 50% AI Adaptation Score + 25% AI Story Score + 25% market verdict, conviction-weighted |\n| **Anchor filing** | 10-Q filed 2026-08-06 (period 2026-06-30) |\n| **Adoption level** | 0 — absent · deterministic |\n| **AI Adaptation Score** | 9.4 / 100 · run 2026-11-05 · sector software percentile 1.0 |\n| **Price** | 36.52 USD |\n| **Place in the book** | rank 10 of 10 · composite 34.8 · story 50.2 · market verdict 70.0 · weight 6.0% |\n\n## 1. Verdict\n\n- **CARG (CarGurus, Inc.) is a BlackSwan constituent**: its own filings show no adaptation to AI the scorer can credit, and its AI Adaptation Score ranks at the bottom of the software companies (SIC 7370–7379) on the 2026-11-05 run [S5].\n- The score rests on the company's 10-Q filed 2026-08-06, read in full by the platform's scorer [S1].\n- Adoption level **0 — absent** on the 0–4 rubric, a deterministic read of a filing with no AI sentence [S1].\n- AI Adaptation Score **9.4** / 100, percentile 11.4 of 6503 scored filers and 1.0 within its sector (software, 585 filers) [S5].\n- What would move it: any AI deployment, investment or outcome stated in the next periodic report [S1].\n\n## 2. The company\n\nCarGurus, Inc. files with the SEC under CIK 1494259, SIC 7374 (Services-Computer Processing & Data Preparation), listed on Nasdaq [S4].\nThe filing the score reads is the 10-Q filed 2026-08-06 for the period ended 2026-06-30, effective for the books from 2026-08-07 [S2].\n\n## 3. What the filing says about AI\n\nThe 10-Q contains **no sentence about artificial intelligence, machine learning or related technology** in the sections the scorer reads (9,270 words parsed) [S1].\nA filing that says nothing about AI is scored level 0 (absent) by construction; there is no claim to assess and nothing for a model read to re-judge [S5].\n\n## 4. The AI Adaptation Score\n\nThe AI Adaptation Score weighs the adoption level (0–4) at 45%, building with AI from the ground up (greenfield) at 20%, the credibility of the claims at 15%, the trajectory against the previous filing at 12% and the investment signal at 8%, with trajectory and investment measured against the company's own sector; the greenfield reward counts only from level 3 upward [S5].\nCARG's score of 9.4 decomposes into level 0.0, greenfield 0.0, credibility 0.0, trajectory 5.9 and investment 3.5 points [S5].\nIts cluster label for the run is **non_adopter** with a margin of 21.4 points from the sector's other cluster [S5].\n\nNo model read has confirmed this filing yet; the level is the deterministic reading of the filing text (a filing with no AI sentence needs none) [S5].\n\n## 5. Trajectory\n\nThe previous periodic report, the 10-Q filed 2026-05-07, scored level 0 (absent) with 0 AI sentences [S3].\nThe level is unchanged between the two reports [S1].\n\n## 6. Recent developments\n\n- wire:globenewswire 2026-09-29T13:00+00:00: VINMax, CarGurus’ Newest Innovation, Shortens Turn Times by Over a Week¹ [S7]\n\n## 7. What would change the verdict\n\nThe next periodic report is what moves CARG: a stated AI deployment in a named function, a measured outcome, named investment (capital expenditure, research and development, hiring) or a proprietary model would lift the level and the score, and the book is recomposed on every scoring run [S5].\nA model read that found adoption the keyword count missed would also move it; the score is re-read whenever a new filing arrives [S5].\n\n## 8. Risks and caveats\n\nThe score reads what the company discloses, not what it does: a company can adopt AI without describing it in a periodic report, and can describe it without adopting it [S5].\nRisk-factor language is counted separately from substantive text and never credited as adoption; boilerplate that resembles generic risk disclosure is excluded [S5].\nOnly the sections the scorer parses are read (business, risk factors, management's discussion for a 10-K or 10-Q; the earnings release of an 8-K is scored but never anchors a level) [S5].\n\n## 9. Watch list\n\n- The next periodic report of CARG (expected around 2026-11-04) and its AI sentences [S4].\n- The model read of the current filing (pending) [S5].\n- The next scoring run's AI Adaptation Score and the book's recomposition [S5].\n## Place in the book\n\n- Rank 10 of 10 in AMF-BLACKSWAN (Swan Composite v1.1.0, scoring run 2026-11-05): the book holds the lowest composites [S5].\n- Composite: 0.50 × 9.4 (AAS) + 0.25 × 50.2 (story) + 0.25 × 70.0 (market) = 34.8 [S5].\n- Market verdict 70.0: over the last 90 days CARG rose more and fell less than the software universe's median daily return (down-capture 0.76, up-capture 1.56, L = 0.80; 32 down / 19 up days) — the Failure-To-Adapt fund's selection signal, 50 = moves with the software universe's median daily return [S5].\n- AI Story Score 50.2: no AI story or a neutral one in the AI stories written about the company [S5].\n- Weight: rank factor 1.00 (rank 10 of 10) × story factor 1.00 × market factor 1.00, normalised across the book and clamped to 5–20% → 6.0% [S5].\n\n## Sources\n\n- **S1** — CARG 10-Q filed 2026-08-06 — SEC primary document (the anchor filing the score reads) — \n- **S2** — EDGAR filing index for accession 0001193125-26-338067 — \n- **S3** — CARG 10-Q filed 2026-05-07 — the previous periodic report (trajectory) — \n- **S4** — SEC EDGAR company submissions — CarGurus, Inc. (CIK 1494259) — \n- **S5** — EventTrader AI Adaptation Score, scoring run 2026-11-05 — the AMF-BLACKSWAN fund page (method, composition) — \n- **S6** — EventTrader real-price feed — CARG quote — \n- **S7** — Headline — wire:globenewswire 2026-09-29T13:00+00:00: VINMax, CarGurus’ Newest Innovation, Shortens Turn Times by Over a Week¹ — \n\n## Method and disclaimer\n\nThe AI Adaptation Score reads each company's own periodic SEC reports (10-K, 10-Q, 20-F, 40-F): deterministic features (AI sentences by section, proprietary-model, deployment, outcome, investment and vendor language, boilerplate and negation excluded) set an adoption level on a 0–4 rubric; a model read of the filing's AI sentences confirms the level and scores credibility and greenfield (the business built with AI from the ground up rather than retrofitted); the score combines level, greenfield, credibility, trajectory against the previous report and investment, measured against the company's sector, with greenfield carrying the highest reward. The books are composed by Swan Composite v1.1.0: each company's composite is 50% AI Adaptation Score + 25% AI Story Score + 25% market verdict — the AI Story Score is the sentiment of the AI stories written about it, the belief network of companies named in the same stories and the price reaction to those stories (no story scores neutral); the market verdict is the Failure-To-Adapt fund's selection signal, the signed down/up capture ratio of the stock against the software universe's median return over 90 days (a stock that falls more and rises less than its peers scores below 50). AMF-BLACKSWAN holds the ten lowest composites that pass the liquidity screen and the new-listing gate and AMF-WHITESWAN the ten highest, weighted by conviction (rank, story agreement and market agreement, each leg 5–20%), recomposed on every scoring run. Every quote in this report is the filing's text verbatim; every factual sentence names its source; a source the platform could not reach is reported as missing, never filled in.\n\n*This report is information, not investment advice. Figures come from the cited sources as of their dates. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset.*\n","html":"

AI Adaptation Research Report — CARG (CarGurus, Inc.) · BlackSwan constituent

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EventTrader research desk · generated 2026-11-05 04:01 UTC · report ai-adapt-carg-20261105 · narrative: built from the evidence pack by the platform

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CompanyCARG — CarGurus, Inc. · SIC 7374 Services-Computer Processing & Data Preparation
BookAMF-BLACKSWAN (short) — BlackSwan
Composition algorithmSwan Composite v1.1.0 — 50% AI Adaptation Score + 25% AI Story Score + 25% market verdict, conviction-weighted
Anchor filing10-Q filed 2026-08-06 (period 2026-06-30)
Adoption level0 — absent · deterministic
AI Adaptation Score9.4 / 100 · run 2026-11-05 · sector software percentile 1.0
Price36.52 USD
Place in the bookrank 10 of 10 · composite 34.8 · story 50.2 · market verdict 70.0 · weight 6.0%
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1. Verdict

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  • CARG (CarGurus, Inc.) is a BlackSwan constituent: its own filings show no adaptation to AI the scorer can credit, and its AI Adaptation Score ranks at the bottom of the software companies (SIC 7370–7379) on the 2026-11-05 run [S5].
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  • The score rests on the company's 10-Q filed 2026-08-06, read in full by the platform's scorer [S1].
    • \n
  • Adoption level 0 — absent on the 0–4 rubric, a deterministic read of a filing with no AI sentence [S1].
    • \n
  • AI Adaptation Score 9.4 / 100, percentile 11.4 of 6503 scored filers and 1.0 within its sector (software, 585 filers) [S5].
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  • What would move it: any AI deployment, investment or outcome stated in the next periodic report [S1].
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2. The company

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CarGurus, Inc. files with the SEC under CIK 1494259, SIC 7374 (Services-Computer Processing & Data Preparation), listed on Nasdaq [S4].\nThe filing the score reads is the 10-Q filed 2026-08-06 for the period ended 2026-06-30, effective for the books from 2026-08-07 [S2].

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3. What the filing says about AI

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The 10-Q contains no sentence about artificial intelligence, machine learning or related technology in the sections the scorer reads (9,270 words parsed) [S1].\nA filing that says nothing about AI is scored level 0 (absent) by construction; there is no claim to assess and nothing for a model read to re-judge [S5].

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4. The AI Adaptation Score

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The AI Adaptation Score weighs the adoption level (0–4) at 45%, building with AI from the ground up (greenfield) at 20%, the credibility of the claims at 15%, the trajectory against the previous filing at 12% and the investment signal at 8%, with trajectory and investment measured against the company's own sector; the greenfield reward counts only from level 3 upward [S5].\nCARG's score of 9.4 decomposes into level 0.0, greenfield 0.0, credibility 0.0, trajectory 5.9 and investment 3.5 points [S5].\nIts cluster label for the run is non_adopter with a margin of 21.4 points from the sector's other cluster [S5].

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No model read has confirmed this filing yet; the level is the deterministic reading of the filing text (a filing with no AI sentence needs none) [S5].

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5. Trajectory

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The previous periodic report, the 10-Q filed 2026-05-07, scored level 0 (absent) with 0 AI sentences [S3].\nThe level is unchanged between the two reports [S1].

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6. Recent developments

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  • wire:globenewswire 2026-09-29T13:00+00:00: VINMax, CarGurus’ Newest Innovation, Shortens Turn Times by Over a Week¹ [S7]
    • \n
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7. What would change the verdict

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The next periodic report is what moves CARG: a stated AI deployment in a named function, a measured outcome, named investment (capital expenditure, research and development, hiring) or a proprietary model would lift the level and the score, and the book is recomposed on every scoring run [S5].\nA model read that found adoption the keyword count missed would also move it; the score is re-read whenever a new filing arrives [S5].

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8. Risks and caveats

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The score reads what the company discloses, not what it does: a company can adopt AI without describing it in a periodic report, and can describe it without adopting it [S5].\nRisk-factor language is counted separately from substantive text and never credited as adoption; boilerplate that resembles generic risk disclosure is excluded [S5].\nOnly the sections the scorer parses are read (business, risk factors, management's discussion for a 10-K or 10-Q; the earnings release of an 8-K is scored but never anchors a level) [S5].

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9. Watch list

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  • The next periodic report of CARG (expected around 2026-11-04) and its AI sentences [S4].
    • \n
  • The model read of the current filing (pending) [S5].
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  • The next scoring run's AI Adaptation Score and the book's recomposition [S5].
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Place in the book

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  • Rank 10 of 10 in AMF-BLACKSWAN (Swan Composite v1.1.0, scoring run 2026-11-05): the book holds the lowest composites [S5].
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  • Composite: 0.50 × 9.4 (AAS) + 0.25 × 50.2 (story) + 0.25 × 70.0 (market) = 34.8 [S5].
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  • Market verdict 70.0: over the last 90 days CARG rose more and fell less than the software universe's median daily return (down-capture 0.76, up-capture 1.56, L = 0.80; 32 down / 19 up days) — the Failure-To-Adapt fund's selection signal, 50 = moves with the software universe's median daily return [S5].
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  • AI Story Score 50.2: no AI story or a neutral one in the AI stories written about the company [S5].
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  • Weight: rank factor 1.00 (rank 10 of 10) × story factor 1.00 × market factor 1.00, normalised across the book and clamped to 5–20% → 6.0% [S5].
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Sources

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Method and disclaimer

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The AI Adaptation Score reads each company's own periodic SEC reports (10-K, 10-Q, 20-F, 40-F): deterministic features (AI sentences by section, proprietary-model, deployment, outcome, investment and vendor language, boilerplate and negation excluded) set an adoption level on a 0–4 rubric; a model read of the filing's AI sentences confirms the level and scores credibility and greenfield (the business built with AI from the ground up rather than retrofitted); the score combines level, greenfield, credibility, trajectory against the previous report and investment, measured against the company's sector, with greenfield carrying the highest reward. The books are composed by Swan Composite v1.1.0: each company's composite is 50% AI Adaptation Score + 25% AI Story Score + 25% market verdict — the AI Story Score is the sentiment of the AI stories written about it, the belief network of companies named in the same stories and the price reaction to those stories (no story scores neutral); the market verdict is the Failure-To-Adapt fund's selection signal, the signed down/up capture ratio of the stock against the software universe's median return over 90 days (a stock that falls more and rises less than its peers scores below 50). AMF-BLACKSWAN holds the ten lowest composites that pass the liquidity screen and the new-listing gate and AMF-WHITESWAN the ten highest, weighted by conviction (rank, story agreement and market agreement, each leg 5–20%), recomposed on every scoring run. Every quote in this report is the filing's text verbatim; every factual sentence names its source; a source the platform could not reach is reported as missing, never filled in.

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This report is information, not investment advice. Figures come from the cited sources as of their dates. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset.

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