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Separation that survives only in the pooled numbers is pool size, not conviction; 'separated' means the two 95% Wilson intervals do not overlap."},"window_coverage":{"first_signal_at":1792521257.492044,"last_signal_at":1792997333.169758,"first_signal_iso":"2026-10-20T18:34:17.492044Z","last_signal_iso":"2026-10-26T06:48:53.169758Z","days":5.51,"rows":10000,"distinct_tokens":6208,"repeat_rows":3792,"consecutive_bucket_rows":3381,"rows_after_per_token_day_dedupe":7510,"dedupe_per_token_day_active":false,"labeled_available":88610,"labeled_available_days":42.087,"labeled_available_first_iso":"2026-09-14T04:43:20.173019Z","labeled_available_last_iso":"2026-10-26T06:48:53.169758Z","capped_by_window_n":true,"note":"the exact span of signals this fit was computed on. When labeled_available is larger than rows the row cap is binding; when it is equal, the window is every labeled signal there is and only the labeler can widen it.","window_n":10000,"window_days_cap":60},"label_backlog":{"due_unlabeled":0,"pending_total":5637,"oldest_due_at":null,"oldest_due_iso":null,"oldest_due_age_hours":null,"note":"signals whose 72h window has closed and that are still unlabeled. A large backlog means the fit window is bounded by the labeler, not by the row cap."},"fit_reference":{"n_samples":2500,"min_samples":150,"sufficient":true,"n_train":1750,"n_test":750,"base_rate":0.0148,"brier":0.013201,"brier_base":0.01316,"method":"isotonic-sklearn","knots":[[0.0,0.008308],[4.5,0.008308],[4.6,0.008547],[5.7,0.008547],[5.8,0.014706],[7.8,0.014706],[7.9,0.015385],[8.5,0.015385],[8.6,0.025862],[28.7,0.025862],[28.8,0.031915],[72.2,0.031915]],"bins":[{"lo":0.0,"hi":0.01,"n":475,"hits":5,"mean_predicted":0.007246,"observed":0.010526,"ci_low":0.004504,"ci_high":0.024402},{"lo":0.01,"hi":0.02,"n":49,"hits":1,"mean_predicted":0.013131,"observed":0.020408,"ci_low":0.003612,"ci_high":0.106935},{"lo":0.02,"hi":0.05,"n":226,"hits":4,"mean_predicted":0.030142,"observed":0.017699,"ci_low":0.006904,"ci_high":0.044616}],"window_n":2500,"note":"the same fit restricted to the newest 2500 labeled signals — the window the earlier published numbers were computed on, kept so they stay reproducible now the cap is higher"},"window_start":1792521257.492044,"window_end":1792997333.169758,"window_start_iso":"2026-10-20T18:34:17.492044Z","window_end_iso":"2026-10-26T06:48:53.169758Z","fitted_at":1793257339.5099418,"headline":"n=10000, Brier 0.0165, base 0.0164"},"regime":{"state":"risk-on","exposure_multiplier":1.0,"label":"regime: risk-on","median_24h_pct":0.0,"share_below_open":0.475,"tokens":40,"min_tokens":12,"suppressed":false,"thresholds":{"risk_off_median_pct":-8.0,"caution_median_pct":-3.0,"risk_off_share_below":0.75,"caution_share_below":0.6},"source":"tracked Solana pool universe, 24h price change"},"filter":"all","count":40}